Last data update: Apr 29, 2024. (Total: 46658 publications since 2009)
Records 1-10 (of 10 Records) |
Query Trace: Atkins CY[original query] |
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Cost-effectiveness of dog rabies vaccination programs in East Africa
Borse RH , Atkins CY , Gambhir M , Undurraga EA , Blanton JD , Kahn EB , Dyer JL , Rupprecht CE , Meltzer MI . PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2018 12 (5) e0006490 BACKGROUND: Dog rabies annually causes 24,000-70,000 deaths globally. We built a spreadsheet tool, RabiesEcon, to aid public health officials to estimate the cost-effectiveness of dog rabies vaccination programs in East Africa. METHODS: RabiesEcon uses a mathematical model of dog-dog and dog-human rabies transmission to estimate dog rabies cases averted, the cost per human rabies death averted and cost per year of life gained (YLG) due to dog vaccination programs (US 2015 dollars). We used an East African human population of 1 million (approximately 2/3 living in urban setting, 1/3 rural). We considered, using data from the literature, three vaccination options; no vaccination, annual vaccination of 50% of dogs and 20% of dogs vaccinated semi-annually. We assessed 2 transmission scenarios: low (1.2 dogs infected per infectious dog) and high (1.7 dogs infected). We also examined the impact of annually vaccinating 70% of all dogs (World Health Organization recommendation for dog rabies elimination). RESULTS: Without dog vaccination, over 10 years there would a total of be approximately 44,000-65,000 rabid dogs and 2,100-2,900 human deaths. Annually vaccinating 50% of dogs results in 10-year reductions of 97% and 75% in rabid dogs (low and high transmissions scenarios, respectively), approximately 2,000-1,600 human deaths averted, and an undiscounted cost-effectiveness of $451-$385 per life saved. Semi-annual vaccination of 20% of dogs results in in 10-year reductions of 94% and 78% in rabid dogs, and approximately 2,000-1,900 human deaths averted, and cost $404-$305 per life saved. In the low transmission scenario, vaccinating either 50% or 70% of dogs eliminated dog rabies. Results were most sensitive to dog birth rate and the initial rate of dog-to-dog transmission (Ro). CONCLUSIONS: Dog rabies vaccination programs can control, and potentially eliminate, dog rabies. The frequency and coverage of vaccination programs, along with the level of dog rabies transmission, can affect the cost-effectiveness of such programs. RabiesEcon can aid both the planning and assessment of dog rabies vaccination programs. |
Cost-effectiveness evaluation of a novel integrated bite case management program for the control of human rabies, Haiti 2014-2015
Undurraga EA , Meltzer MI , Tran CH , Atkins CY , Etheart MD , Millien MF , Adrien P , Wallace RM . Am J Trop Med Hyg 2017 96 (6) 1307-1317 Haiti has the highest burden of rabies in the Western hemisphere, with 130 estimated annual deaths. We present the cost-effectiveness evaluation of an integrated bite case management program combining community bite investigations and passive animal rabies surveillance, using a governmental perspective. The Haiti Animal Rabies Surveillance Program (HARSP) was first implemented in three communes of the West Department, Haiti. Our evaluation encompassed all individuals exposed to rabies in the study area (N = 2,289) in 2014-2015. Costs (2014 U.S. dollars) included diagnostic laboratory development, training of surveillance officers, operational costs, and postexposure prophylaxis (PEP). We used estimated deaths averted and years of life gained (YLG) from prevented rabies as health outcomes. HARSP had higher overall costs (range: $39,568-$80,290) than the no-bitecase- management (NBCM) scenario ($15,988-$26,976), partly from an increased number of bite victims receiving PEP. But HARSP had better health outcomes than NBCM, with estimated 11 additional annual averted deaths in 2014 and nine in 2015, and 654 additional YLG in 2014 and 535 in 2015. Overall, HARSP was more cost-effective (US$ per death averted) than NBCM (2014, HARSP: $2,891-$4,735, NBCM: $5,980-$8,453; 2015, HARSP: $3,534- $7,171, NBCM: $7,298-$12,284). HARSP offers an effective human rabies prevention solution for countries transitioning from reactive to preventive strategies, such as comprehensive dog vaccination. |
Modeling in real time during the Ebola response
Meltzer MI , Santibanez S , Fischer LS , Merlin TL , Adhikari BB , Atkins CY , Campbell C , Fung IC , Gambhir M , Gift T , Greening B , Gu W , Jacobson EU , Kahn EB , Carias C , Nerlander L , Rainisch G , Shankar M , Wong K , Washington ML . MMWR Suppl 2016 65 (3) 85-9 To aid decision-making during CDC's response to the 2014-2016 Ebola virus disease (Ebola) epidemic in West Africa, CDC activated a Modeling Task Force to generate estimates on various topics related to the response in West Africa and the risk for importation of cases into the United States. Analysis of eight Ebola response modeling projects conducted during August 2014-July 2015 provided insight into the types of questions addressed by modeling, the impact of the estimates generated, and the difficulties encountered during the modeling. This time frame was selected to cover the three phases of the West African epidemic curve. Questions posed to the Modeling Task Force changed as the epidemic progressed. Initially, the task force was asked to estimate the number of cases that might occur if no interventions were implemented compared with cases that might occur if interventions were implemented; however, at the peak of the epidemic, the focus shifted to estimating resource needs for Ebola treatment units. Then, as the epidemic decelerated, requests for modeling changed to generating estimates of the potential number of sexually transmitted Ebola cases. Modeling to provide information for decision-making during the CDC Ebola response involved limited data, a short turnaround time, and difficulty communicating the modeling process, including assumptions and interpretation of results. Despite these challenges, modeling yielded estimates and projections that public health officials used to make key decisions regarding response strategy and resources required. The impact of modeling during the Ebola response demonstrates the usefulness of modeling in future responses, particularly in the early stages and when data are scarce. Future modeling can be enhanced by planning ahead for data needs and data sharing, and by open communication among modelers, scientists, and others to ensure that modeling and its limitations are more clearly understood. The activities summarized in this report would not have been possible without collaboration with many U.S. and international partners (http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/partners.html). |
Cost-effectiveness of preventing dental caries and full mouth dental reconstructions among Alaska Native children in the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta region of Alaska
Atkins CY , Thomas TK , Lenaker D , Day GM , Hennessy TW , Meltzer MI . J Public Health Dent 2016 76 (3) 228-40 OBJECTIVE: We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of five specific dental interventions to help guide resource allocation. METHODS: We developed a spreadsheet-based tool, from the healthcare payer perspective, to evaluate the cost effectiveness of specific dental interventions that are currently used among Alaska Native children (6-60 months). Interventions included: water fluoridation, dental sealants, fluoride varnish, tooth brushing with fluoride toothpaste, and conducting initial dental exams on children <18 months of age. We calculated the cost-effectiveness ratio of implementing the proposed interventions to reduce the number of carious teeth and full mouth dental reconstructions (FMDRs) over 10 years. RESULTS: A total of 322 children received caries treatments completed by a dental provider in the dental chair, while 161 children received FMDRs completed by a dental surgeon in an operating room. The average cost of treating dental caries in the dental chair was $1,467 ( approximately 258,000 per year); while the cost of treating FMDRs was $9,349 ( approximately 1.5 million per year). All interventions were shown to prevent caries and FMDRs; however tooth brushing prevented the greatest number of caries at minimum and maximum effectiveness with 1,433 and 1,910, respectively. Tooth brushing also prevented the greatest number of FMDRs (159 and 211) at minimum and maximum effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: All of the dental interventions evaluated were shown to produce cost savings. However, the level of that cost saving is dependent on the intervention chosen. |
Standardizing scenarios to assess the need to respond to an influenza pandemic
Meltzer MI , Gambhir M , Atkins CY , Swerdlow DL . Clin Infect Dis 2015 60 Suppl 1 S1-8 An outbreak of human infections with an avian influenza A(H7N9) virus was first reported in eastern China by the World Health Organization on 1 April 2013 [1]. This novel influenza virus was fatal in approximately one-third of the 135 confirmed cases detected in the 4 months following its initial identification [2], and limited human-to-human H7N9 virus transmission could not be excluded in some Chinese clusters of cases [3, 4]. There was, and still is, the possibility that the virus would mutate to the point where there would be sustained human-to-human transmission. Given that most of the human population has no prior immunity (either due to natural challenge or vaccine induced), such a strain presents the danger of starting an influenza pandemic. | In response to such a threat, the Joint Modeling Unit at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) was asked to conduct a rapid assessment of both the potential burden of unmitigated disease and the possible impacts of different mitigation measures. We were tasked to evaluate the 6 following interventions: invasive mechanical ventilators, influenza antiviral drugs for treatment (but not large-scale prophylaxis), influenza vaccines, respiratory protective devices for healthcare workers and surgical face masks for patients, school closings to reduce transmission, and airport-based screening to identify those ill with novel influenza virus entering the United States. This supplement presents reports on the methods and estimates for the first 5 listed interventions, and in this introduction we outline the general approach and standardized epidemiological assumptions used in all the articles. |
Estimating the future number of cases in the Ebola epidemic - Liberia and Sierra Leone, 2014-2015
Meltzer MI , Atkins CY , Santibanez S , Knust B , Petersen BW , Ervin ED , Nichol ST , Damon IK , Washington ML . MMWR Suppl 2014 63 (3) 1-14 The first cases of the current West African epidemic of Ebola virus disease (hereafter referred to as Ebola) were reported on March 22, 2014, with a report of 49 cases in Guinea. By August 31, 2014, a total of 3,685 probable, confirmed, and suspected cases in West Africa had been reported. To aid in planning for additional disease-control efforts, CDC constructed a modeling tool called EbolaResponse to provide estimates of the potential number of future cases. If trends continue without scale-up of effective interventions, by September 30, 2014, Sierra Leone and Liberia will have a total of approximately 8,000 Ebola cases. A potential underreporting correction factor of 2.5 also was calculated. Using this correction factor, the model estimates that approximately 21,000 total cases will have occurred in Liberia and Sierra Leone by September 30, 2014. Reported cases in Liberia are doubling every 15-20 days, and those in Sierra Leone are doubling every 30-40 days. The EbolaResponse modeling tool also was used to estimate how control and prevention interventions can slow and eventually stop the epidemic. In a hypothetical scenario, the epidemic begins to decrease and eventually end if approximately 70% of persons with Ebola are in medical care facilities or Ebola treatment units (ETUs) or, when these settings are at capacity, in a non-ETU setting such that there is a reduced risk for disease transmission (including safe burial when needed). In another hypothetical scenario, every 30-day delay in increasing the percentage of patients in ETUs to 70% was associated with an approximate tripling in the number of daily cases that occur at the peak of the epidemic (however, the epidemic still eventually ends). Officials have developed a plan to rapidly increase ETU capacities and also are developing innovative methods that can be quickly scaled up to isolate patients in non-ETU settings in a way that can help disrupt Ebola transmission in communities. The U.S. government and international organizations recently announced commitments to support these measures. As these measures are rapidly implemented and sustained, the higher projections presented in this report become very unlikely. |
Cost-effectiveness of alternative strategies for annual influenza vaccination among children aged 6 months to 14 years in four provinces in China
Zhou L , Situ S , Feng Z , Atkins CY , Fung IC , Xu Z , Huang T , Hu S , Wang X , Meltzer MI . PLoS One 2014 9 (1) e87590 BACKGROUND: To support policy making, we developed an initial model to assess the cost-effectiveness of potential strategies to increase influenza vaccination rates among children in China. METHODS: We studied on children aged 6 months to 14 years in four provinces (Shandong, Henan, Hunan, and Sichuan), with a health care system perspective. We used data from 2005/6 to 2010/11, excluding 2009/10. Costs are reported in 2010 U.S. dollars. RESULTS: In comparison with no vaccination, the mean (range) of Medically Attended Cases averted by the current self-payment policy for the two age groups (6 to 59 months and 60 months to 14 years) was 1,465 (23 approximately 11,132) and 792 (36 approximately 4,247), and the cost effectiveness ratios were $ 0 (-11-51) and $ 37 (6-125) per case adverted, respectively. In comparison with the current policy, the incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) of alternative strategies, OPTION One-reminder and OPTION Two-comprehensive package, decreased as vaccination rate increased. The ICER for children aged 6 to 59 months was lower than that for children aged 60 months to 14 years. CONCLUSIONS: The model is a useful tool in identifying elements for evaluating vaccination strategies. However, more data are needed to produce more accurate cost-effectiveness estimates of potential vaccination policies. |
Effects of vaccine program against pandemic influenza A(H1N1) virus, United States, 2009-2010
Borse RH , Shrestha SS , Fiore AE , Atkins CY , Singleton JA , Furlow C , Meltzer MI . Emerg Infect Dis 2013 19 (3) 439-448 In April 2009, the United States began a response to the emergence of a pandemic influenza virus strain: A(H1N1)pdm09. Vaccination began in October 2009. By using US surveillance data (April 12, 2009-April 10, 2010) and vaccine coverage estimates (October 3, 2009-April 18, 2010), we estimated that the A(H1N1)pdm09 virus vaccination program prevented 700,000-1,500,000 clinical cases, 4,000-10,000 hospitalizations, and 200-500 deaths. We found that the national health effects were greatly influenced by the timing of vaccine administration and the effectiveness of the vaccine. We estimated that recommendations for priority vaccination of targeted priority groups were not inferior to other vaccination prioritization strategies. These results emphasize the need for relevant surveillance data to facilitate a rapid evaluation of vaccine recommendations and effects. |
Estimating effect of antiviral drug use during pandemic (H1N1) 2009 outbreak, United States
Atkins CY , Patel A , Taylor TH Jr , Biggerstaff M , Merlin TL , Dulin SM , Erickson BA , Borse RH , Hunkler R , Meltzer MI . Emerg Infect Dis 2011 17 (9) 1591-8 From April 2009 through March 2010, during the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 outbreak, approximately 8.2 million prescriptions for influenza neuraminidase-inhibiting antiviral drugs were filled in the United States. We estimated the number of hospitalizations likely averted due to use of these antiviral medications. After adjusting for prescriptions that were used for prophylaxis and personal stockpiles, as well as for patients who did not complete their drug regimen, we estimated the filled prescriptions prevented approximately 8,400-12,600 hospitalizations (on the basis of median values). Approximately 60% of these prevented hospitalizations were among adults 18-64 years of age, with the remainder almost equally divided between children 0-17 years of age and adults >65 years of age. Public health officials should consider these estimates an indication of success of treating patients during the 2009 pandemic and a warning of the need for renewed planning to cope with the next pandemic. |
Estimating the burden of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in the United States (April 2009-April 2010)
Shrestha SS , Swerdlow DL , Borse RH , Prabhu VS , Finelli L , Atkins CY , Owusu-Edusei K , Bell B , Mead PS , Biggerstaff M , Brammer L , Davidson H , Jernigan D , Jhung MA , Kamimoto LA , Merlin TL , Nowell M , Redd SC , Reed C , Schuchat A , Meltzer MI . Clin Infect Dis 2011 52 S75-S82 To calculate the burden of 2009 pandemic influenza A (pH1N1) in the United States, we extrapolated from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Emerging Infections Program laboratory-confirmed hospitalizations across the entire United States, and then corrected for underreporting. From 12 April 2009 to 10 April 2010, we estimate that approximately 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (8,868-18,306) occurred in the United States due to pH1N1. Eighty-seven percent of deaths occurred in those under 65 years of age with children and working adults having risks of hospitalization and death 4 to 7 times and 8 to 12 times greater, respectively, than estimates of impact due to seasonal influenza covering the years 1976-2001. In our study, adults 65 years of age or older were found to have rates of hospitalization and death that were up to 75% and 81%, respectively, lower than seasonal influenza. These results confirm the necessity of a concerted public health response to pH1N1. |
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